The writer is an author and journalist.
MATTERS are getting increasingly ominous for Nawaz
Sharif, although he may still be in a state of denial. It is not just
about Imran Khan’s threatened lockdown of the capital; it is his
increasingly tense relations with the military that must be his main
worry. It is a much more serious situation than what Sharif faced during
the 2014 dharna.
Naming the new army chief before Nov
2, as rumour has it, is not likely to mend matters. The unresolved issue
of the ‘leak’ to the media of the proceedings of a top security meeting
is not going to go away with a change of guard. Hence, Imran Khan’s
planned storming of the capital could not have come at a worse time for
the beleaguered prime minister.
It is highly unlikely
that the other opposition parties will come to Sharif’s rescue, as they
did in 2014, without him agreeing to a judicial inquiry into the Panama
scandal involving his family. It is time for the prime minister to
remember the Ides of November that demand ‘sacrifice to the Thunderer’.
The ball is in his court.
It is no more a solo flight
for Imran Khan, with Tahirul Qadri finally deciding to join the Nov 2
march. Surely his is not a mainstream party, but as offensive as he may
seem, the cleric has the capacity to mobilise a highly motivated crowd
of followers that could lend muscle to the siege.
It is highly unlikely that the other opposition parties will come to Nawaz Sharif’s rescue this time.
What is most alarming, however, are the reports of some
extremist religious groups joining the assault, not necessarily in
support of the PTI, but to take advantage of the impending chaos. The
so-called Difai-i-Pakistan Council, which includes Hafiz Saeed and
leaders of some other proscribed groups, has also announced that it will
take to the streets. It certainly must be a cause of serious concern,
both for domestic and external reasons. That will only reinforce doubts
of the international community on Pakistan’s efforts to eliminate all
kinds of militant and extremist groups.
The implications
of an uncontrolled mob storming the capital are extremely serious. Any
use of force would further aggravate the situation, thus worsening the
government’s predicament. The administration is reportedly considering
calling in the army under Article 245 of the Constitution to secure the
red zone. But such a move has its pitfalls given the new low in
civil-military relations. What would happen in the event of violence and
mobs paralysing the city is anybody’s guess.
What is
alleged to have been a deliberate leak to this paper is a clear
manifestation of the uneasy civil-military relationship. It seems a part
of the blame game that has long been played out in the media over who
is responsible for the failure to implement the National Action Plan.
The military has on several occasions publicly decried what it describes
as the government’s inaction.
This criticism of the
civilian government has also been constantly aired through some TV
anchors and commentators. This has certainly been upsetting for the
Sharif government, which believes it is part of an orchestrated campaign
against it at the behest of the intelligence agencies. For many, the
Dawn report merely presented the other side of the story. The denial by
the Prime Minister Office has failed to defuse the situation as the
military demands that some heads roll. For the Sharif government, action
against any cabinet minister or official would mean pleading guilty.
There
is a strong view in the government that the issue will fizzle out with
the passage of time and the announcement of the new army chief before
the end of this month. Many believe that the matter has been blown out
of proportion, with no smoking gun found implicating anyone in the
government. But this is not how the military thinks.
Gen
Raheel Sharif is due to retire in the third week of November.
Speculations about his seeking an extension to his term already seem to
have died down. But he will not be a lame duck until he passes the baton
on to his successor. Another thing that Nawaz Sharif, despite his past
experience, has failed to understand is that it is not just about an
individual but an institution.
It may be true that there
are limitations to what the military can do against an elected civilian
government, but the widening trust deficit and the military stepping
back from supporting the government in the event of a political crisis
is certainly not a good omen for Sharif.
Moreover, the
conflict has also adversely affected the country’s fight against
militancy and religious extremism. The recent surge in militant violence
in Quetta and other parts of the country is indicative of a policy
paralysis. The government wakes up after each incident reiterating its
resolve to fight to the end, only to go back to sleep.
The
latest terrorist attack on the Quetta police academy that killed at
least 60 people is yet another grim reminder of the continuing militant
threat. The civil-military discord is, indeed, a major cause for lack of
a coherent and coordinated approach to dealing with the menace. The
blame game will take us nowhere. The responsibility lies with both the
civilian and military leaderships to sort their differences out.
It
is also the responsibility of the government to defuse the political
crisis that threatens to derail the democratic process in the country.
One can certainly not support Imran Khan’s relentless agitation and
storming of the capital. But the government must not take cover of his
folly to avoid accountability on the money trail leading to the prime
minister’s family’s foreign properties.
A way out of the
crisis is for Sharif to reach an agreement with the opposition on the
terms of reference for an independent inquiry into the Panama scandal.
There is always danger of an extra-constitutional intervention when
politicians fail to resolve their differences in a democratic way.
The writer is an author and journalist.
Published in Dawn October 26th, 2016
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